By: B. S.DARA

India today finds itself in one of the most volatile international environments since the Cold War. The Middle East is sliding into wider conflict, old alliances are being revived, America is gripped by its own political breakdown, and economic nationalism is spreading across the globe. For New Delhi, the world’s largest democracy and a rising voice of the Global South, these shocks carry profound consequences for security, diplomacy, and economic growth.

Two developments in September 2025 underline the stakes. First, Israel’s strike on Qatar ignited Arab unity, followed swiftly by a Saudi–Pakistan defence pact declaring that an attack on one would be treated as an attack on both. Second, the United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, despite overwhelming international support. Both moves highlight the dangerous polarisation of the global order, leaving India to navigate a minefield of conflicting alliances.

On 9 September, Israel launched a strike on Doha, targeting members of Hamas’s political leadership. The attack shattered the fragile perception that Arab capitals could live with Tel Aviv’s aggression so long as it stayed contained to Gaza or Lebanon. Within days, the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation convened an extraordinary joint session, condemning the strike and calling for collective solidarity.

The most concrete outcome came on 17 September, when Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact. The agreement, announced in Riyadh during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit, states that any aggression against one country will be treated as aggression against both. It is, in effect, a collective defence clause in the heart of the Gulf.

Saudi officials stressed that relations with India “remain more robust than ever.” Yet the symbolism of Riyadh binding itself to Pakistan in this way is unmistakable. For Pakistan, long struggling with economic crisis and diplomatic marginalisation, the pact restores its regional relevance. For India, it introduces a new complication as its strongest energy partner has now formalised a security arrangement with its most persistent adversary.

If the Qatar strike shook the Gulf, Israel’s growing confrontation with Turkey could prove catastrophic. Ankara has emerged as one of Tel Aviv’s fiercest critics, aligning with Qatar and calling Israel’s actions in Gaza genocide. Should Israel escalate against Turkey, whether through cyber operations, maritime clashes, or even air strikes, the conflict would cross into NATO’s domain.

A war between Israel and Turkey would not stay confined to the Middle East. It would pull in NATO’s credibility, Russia’s opportunism, Iran’s ambitions, and the world’s energy arteries. For India, which relies on maritime flows through the Suez Canal and eastern Mediterranean to reach Europe, disruption would be immediate and costly. Insurance premiums, shipping delays, and oil price spikes would hammer an economy already wrestling with inflationary pressures.

On 18 September, the United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Fourteen of the Council’s 15 members supported the measure, which called for humanitarian access, the release of captives, and an end to Israel’s scorched-earth offensive on Gaza City.

Algeria’s ambassador to the UN apologised to Palestinians with the words, “Forgive us, brothers, sisters,” while Palestinian officials decried the veto as enabling genocide. UN experts had already declared that Israel was committing acts with the intent to “destroy” the Palestinian people.

Yet Washington, guided by its deputy envoy Morgan Ortagus, argued that the resolution “failed to condemn Hamas” and “wrongly legitimised false narratives.” Israel’s ambassador, Danny Danon, thanked the U.S. for shielding Tel Aviv.

This veto was the sixth since the Gaza war began nearly two years ago, and it coincides with the rise of Trumpism in American politics, unilateral, defiant, and dismissive of multilateral institutions. The assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk has only deepened America’s internal fracture, where political intolerance, restrictions on free speech, and violence are eroding the foundations of U.S. democracy.

For India, the implications are stark. Washington remains a key partner in technology, defence, and counterbalancing China. But America’s credibility as a global stabiliser is collapsing. An “America First” world means New Delhi must hedge its bets, strengthening ties with Europe, deepening South-South cooperation, and keeping lines open with Russia and China even as it courts Washington.

India’s relationship with Israel has blossomed in defence, agriculture, and technology. New trade deals are under discussion, and Israeli military systems form a key part of India’s arsenal. Yet, in the present climate, such closeness comes with risks.

Arab states are reasserting unity, and India’s position as a trusted partner in the Gulf, where over nine million Indian expatriates live and send home $40 billion annually, could be endangered if New Delhi is seen as tilting too far toward Tel Aviv.

So far, India has adopted careful language condemning civilian deaths in Gaza without directly criticising Israel. But as the humanitarian toll mounts and Arab anger hardens, the space for neutrality shrinks.

India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude has been a lifeline against global inflation. By turning to Russian barrels, New Delhi has kept fuel prices manageable and shielded growth. But this policy also risks Western backlash.

Washington and Brussels see Indian purchases as undermining sanctions and funding Russia’s war in Ukraine. Punitive tariffs, restricted technology access, or reduced market entry could be the subtle consequences. With exports already strained by slowing global demand, such measures could hurt India’s ambitions of becoming a global manufacturing hub.

Beyond oil, India faces the broader challenge of rising protectionism. The U.S., EU, and other major economies are increasingly imposing tariffs under the guise of “national security” or “climate action.” For India’s exporters, from IT to textiles, the danger is clear.

Higher tariffs abroad, combined with energy price volatility, would pressure margins, curb job creation, and slow down India’s drive toward self-reliance.

The United States’ own democratic crisis may be the most sobering lesson for India. The assassination of Charlie Kirk, political violence, restrictions on speech, and deep intolerance show how even the richest democracy can be destabilised from within.

India, too, has its own debates over freedom of expression, polarisation, and political violence. The American example demonstrates that economic power is no substitute for democratic cohesion. For New Delhi to be a credible global leader, it must preserve tolerance and stability at home while projecting influence abroad.

India is caught in the crosswinds of a fractured world. The Saudi–Pakistan defence pact shows how Arab unity can empower Islamabad at New Delhi’s expense. Israel’s threats toward Turkey risk sparking a wider war that would hit Indian trade routes and energy flows. America’s vetoes and Trumpist politics erode the multilateral order India depends on. And protectionism threatens its economy even as Russian oil provides a short-term cushion.

The challenge is immense. India must deepen ties with Israel while retaining Arab trust, buy Russian energy while avoiding Western retaliation, engage with Washington while preparing for its unpredictability, and preserve its own democracy while claiming a leadership role in the Global South.

In a world where the old anchors are breaking, India’s best strategy is flexibility to remain non-aligned in spirit, pragmatic in trade, and vocal in its call for peace. For a nation that has long prided itself on strategic autonomy, that principle may once again be its greatest strength.